Why Democrats will lose the civil war

This election year it hasn’t been uncommon to read articles about the possibility of civil war. While it is hopefully unlikely, if it did happen the radical right would have the upper hand.

According to a 2017 study, Republican and Republican-leaning independents are more than twice as likely as Democrats to say they own a gun, and most gun owners live in rural areas, AKA Trumpland. While it’s not included in the study, I’d bet that a lot of those rural gun owners are like my friend who has a ridiculous arsenal of AR-15s, hunting rifles, shotguns, Dirty Harry style Magnum revolvers, and other assorted handguns. City dwelling gun owners probably just have a small handgun or shotgun for home defense. If a civil war was fought only between civilians the liberal left would be slaughtered.

We would hope that law enforcement and the military would be on the side of the constitution, but if instead they chose party over country the left will have no chance. When it comes to law enforcement police sergeants, special agents, sheriffs, and state troopers are about 60% Republican, while detectives, police officers, corrections officers, and criminal investigators are roughly 50/50 (http://verdantlabs.com/politics_of_professions/). The Military however, is roughly 60% Republican, with the Marines and Air Force about 80% Republican.

From this simple examination it’s clear that Republicans have the upper hand in armament and training, but would they choose party over country in a constitutional crises? That’s harder to say. The die hard, conspiracy theory Trump followers will follow him to the grave, but it’s less certain that our top military leaders would back him. But if a civil war was fought purely along party lines, my money would be on the Republicans.